Victor's "Escape from Overshoot" Reviewed

The most solid, accessible, comprehensive, and valuable grounding in ecological economics that I have read.

In 2014, mere days after the launch of my first book, I was at an environmental conference in Muskoka, Ontario. I had just finished reading an intriguing textbook called “Managing Without Growth” (it was a pretty radical thought back then—and, unfortunately, still is), and the book’s author was standing across from me on a coffee break. My brief conversation with him was a bit embarrassing. Even though my one work of the time had been described in a journal as “dizzyingly well researched”, my academic background was (and still is) best described as “undisciplined”.

Meanwhile, here I was chatting about a post growth world with the internationally-renowned Dr. Peter A. Victor, now Professor Emeritus at York University. I was quickly reminded of my zero credibility and zero formal academic background in what I was writing about. (I think those gaps ended up usefully contributing to my ability to see things somewhat differently, but that’s another story.) I had a lot of catching up to do in order to take my interesting ideas and put them into the context of the field of study most likely to benefit from them (and one where Dr. Victor is a pioneering figure)—ecological economics.

New Society Publishers, 2023

A decade passed, and I’m now a guest lecturer to graduate students at the University of Waterloo. And I wish that “Escape from Overshoot”, Peter Victor’s latest book, had been around for that transition. I think it ranks as a quintessential introduction to ecological economics, as well as being an important work on one of the biggest systemic issues facing civilization today—the connection between ecological overshoot and our obsession with economic growth.

The book has a textbook feel to it, beginning with a comprehensive review of the relevant history of Economics, from Francois Quesnay in the 1700s to Tim Jackson (who also wrote the foreword). Even though it would nicely suit a university lecture hall, it’s clear to me that a key objective was accessibility to a wide audience. The 290 pages pack a lot of good information into a digestible package; it’s authoritative, without going overboard on footnote references (only 135); and it has a useful 12-page index. More than half the pages have graphics on them—not just charts, but diagrams and pictures. A few struck me as almost gratuitous, but I applaud the effort and intention. (Writing for the general public is what I strive for myself.) This book is an easy read.

(My one complaint was that several of the graphics really needed colour to be readily interpreted. Interestingly, for those who buy the black-and-white paperback, New Society Publishers offers a link to a free e-book version in full colour!)

After outlining the essential challenges and our ‘Intro to Econ 101’, we are taken through all of the most important ecological economic models. Quite frankly, in my opinion, if you are not familiar with concepts like circular economies, decoupling, and Kate Raworth’s Doughnut model, you are not well-informed enough to be a serious activist with an eye on the big picture. And Victor covers all of these with ease.

Ecological Overshoot

Ecological overshoot is the idea that our current lifestyle is blowing past our physical planetary limitations (in at least nine different critical metrics). Knowing his previous work, it’s not surprising that one component of his escape plan is some form of degrowth—apparently the dreaded ‘d-word’ in some circles. I work with many individuals who refuse to use it; not because it is not a key part of the solution to our continued existence, but because it might turn people off or be too radical an idea.

News Flash: Humanity is in some deep sh!t, and you can bet that our only ways out are going to be ideas more radical than most people can wrap their head around. (That’s part of the problem, actually.)

Escape from Overshoot does not focus on the implementation of those ideas, as much as it brings a strong awareness of the desperate need for them, while also showing that many of the radical outcomes proposed by ecological economists are possible, plausible, and even probable if we can shift our paradigm significantly.

Solutions

For those of us who have wrestled with the true systemic challenges for a while, there is no new solution or strategy in this book. That’s okay. The basic concepts underpinning what needs to be done have been known for some time. A few of the principles go back over a century. The late 19th century political economist Henry George gets a single mention on page 1. Unfortunately, George’s solutions—which hold great relevance today—are never discussed. Instead, Victor focusses on those basic principles, and there is no question that grasping them is the first step (and a giant leap) for humankind!

As for Victor’s own contributions to actually implementing some solutions, they come late in the final chapter. Again, I don’t fault him on this—the awareness spelled out in the previous eight chapters is also 80% of the journey needed make a difference. Indeed, he (quite rightly) talks about planning an escape from overshoot more than the escape itself. The best part for me is summed up in his closing “Fourteen Propositions for Planning an Escape from Overshoot”. Some of these should be head-smackingly obvious, but then, perhaps you first have to be comfortable with the evidence and awareness that leads to these conclusions (and the vocabulary), all of which readers of the book will know by this point. Spoiler alert! I’ll share them here:

Fourteen Propositions for Planning an Escape from Overshoot

1. There is compelling evidence that humanity is living in an era of global overshoot.

2. A reduction in the physical scale of the human enterprise is essential to escape from overshoot.

3. The historical and current causes and consequences of overshoot are extremely unequal within and among countries.

4. Limits on material and energy throughput and land transformation are critical to an escape from overshoot.

5. Contraction and convergence is an appropriate ethical principle for building an escape plan.

6. A planned escape from overshoot requires a common sense of purpose such as has been seen in times of war and pandemics.

7. A common sense of purpose should be founded on principles of justice, otherwise the escape plan will be compromised by people and institutions seeking their own self- interest rather than working towards shared objectives. These principles of justice should encompass non-human life as well as human.

8. A common sense of purpose is more likely to emerge from forms of democracy that combine representation and participation, and which are based on the principle of subsidiarity — that social, political, and environmental issues are best dealt with at the most immediate level consistent with their resolution.

9. Reductions in population should be welcomed, planned for, and encouraged through increased measures such as: accessibility to education especially for girls, increased availability of contraception, provision of a basic income and wealth, and better support for the elderly.

10. Finance should facilitate the escape from overshoot rather than exacerbate it. To this end, money creation by commercial banks should be curtailed. The financialization of nature and the implication that it exists solely to serve human interests, should be halted and reversed.

11. Technology does not exist in isolation. It is embodied in materials and requires energy for its production and use. Technologies often have unintended consequences which can be positive and negative. Whether and how technology contributes to the escape from overshoot depends on who owns it and what they seek to obtain from that ownership.

12. Knowledge and ideas should be shared as much as possible given that they are non- rival. Exclusion of potential users through intellectual property rights should be discouraged, especially where it impedes the flow of information, products, and services to low- income countries as happened, for example, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

13. Capitalism presents serious obstacles to an escape from overshoot. It serves the interests of the owners of capital, who, through increasingly powerful corporations, are constantly looking for ways to extend their reach, increasing overshoot, and only incidentally serving the interests of other members of society. Experience with Socialism has a mixed record in relation to overshoot, having focused on growth almost as much as in capitalism, and it has shown the shortcomings of central planning.

14. Overshoot will transform economic and political systems. It is better to choose the transformations we want rather than have them forced upon us by circumstances beyond our control.

—from “Escape from Overshoot” by Peter A. Victor

I think this will be one of those primer books that I end up giving out to multiple friends and colleagues as a must-read.